25/04/14 – EU Macro Economic overview from EUROFER

 

    1. Indicators keep their strength
    2. Steady but uneven progress in industry
    3. Domestic demand supportive to growth
    4. EU’s reliance on exports remains high
    5. Euro strength reason for concern
    6. EU economy gaining further traction
    7. Risk balance remains fragile.

 

In the Q1 of 2013, economic growth in the EU showed a mild acceleration compared with the preceding quarter: GDP growth crept up to 0.4% QoQ and 1.1% YoY.

In line with expectations, the contribution of domestic demand to growth strengthened moderately with particularly investment gaining traction towards the end of last year. At the same time, exports remained the key growth driver.

There were also encouraging signs at the country level. The gap in economic performance between the EU core countries narrowed somewhat, as GDP growth in France and Italy inched up. Smaller Eurozone economies such as Belgium, Sweden, Portugal and the Netherlands also gained momentum in Q4 2013.

On balance, three consecutive quarters of cautious growth following the weak economic performance in the Q1 of last year resulted in GDP over the whole of 2013 stagnating compared with 2012.

 

April’14 EU Forecast 2012 2013 2014(f) 2015(f)
GDP -0.4 0 1.4 1.8
Private consumption -0.8 -0.1 0.9 1.4
Government consumption -0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4
Investment -2.5 -1.9 2.8 3.2
Investment in mach. equip. -2 -1.7 3.8 4.8
Investment in construction -3.3 -2.9 1.7 2.1
Exports 1.7 1.4 4.2 4.9
Imports -0.1 0.1 3.6 4.8
Unemployment rate 10.8 11.3 11.1 10.8
Inflation .4 1.5 1.1 1.5
Industrial production -2.3 -0.5 2.3 2.8

 
Source – Strategic Research Institute, SteelGuru.com